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xGoals Explanation — American Soccer Analysis

Details on ASA's Expected goals model. Expected Goals 3.0 takes our data to another level of ...

American Soccer Analysis

May 26, 2021. / Carl Carpenter. This is the second of a series of biweekly articles on American Soccer Analysis analyzing interesting tidbits across the season - both at a team and individual level. As the season continues to heat up, these articles will come at all angles of the game: tactical information, fascinating data quirks, and as well ...

Calculating Expected Goals 2.0 — American Soccer Analysis

Expected Goals for Shooter. Start with -0.28. Subtract 0.83 if the shot was headed (0.0 if it was kicked or othered). Subtract 0.65 if the shot was taken from a corner kick (by Opta definition). Add 2.54 if the shot was as a penalty kick. Add 0.71 if the shot was taken on a fastbreak (by Opta definition).

xGoals 2.0 Explanation — American Soccer Analysis

xGoals 2.0 Explanation — American Soccer Analysis. For 2014, we will again be producing MLS tables with many of the statistics we featured last season. The incredibly awesome new addition will be Expected Goals 2.0---for both teams and players---based on our new formula. I explained Expected Goals 1.0 already, but we can use the shot location (based on the above six zones) to calculate expected goals.

American Soccer Analysis

Expected Possession Goals (xPG) attempts to create a more holistic view of a soccer match by focusing on possessions rather than just shots. Possessions occur at about a 10-to-1 ratio to shots, so they can provide 10x the data for analyzing the flow of a game.

Expected Goals 1.0 | American Soccer Analysis

Expected Goals 1.0. I first introduced our shot location data here, and now it will be available every week! I broke the field down into six scoring zones (shown to the right), and I tallied shot-taking data from these zones. I will post updated league rates on this page in addition to luck charts. PK attempts are included in zone 2, but own ...

expected goal differential | American Soccer Analysis

The basic premise of expected goal differential is to assess how dangerous a team’s shots are, and how dangerous its opponent’s shots are. A team that gets a lot of dangerous shots inside the box, but doesn’t give up such shots on defense, is likely to be doing something tactically or skillfully, and is likely to be able to reproduce those results. The challenge to creating expected goal differential (xGD), then, is to obtain data that measures the difficulty of each shot all season long.

By Game 2018 — American Soccer Analysis

2018 GAME-BY-GAME EXPECTED GOALS. Last Updated 3/4/2019. Note: Does not include own-goals. Dates in UTC. HG: Home Goals, HxGt: Home Expected Goals based on our team xG model, HxGp:, Home Expected Goals based on our player xG model, AG: Away Goals, AxGt: Away Expected Goals based on our team xG model, AxGp: Away Expected Goals based on our player xG model, xGDt: Expected Goal Differential based ...

Expected Goals 2.0 | American Soccer Analysis

Expected Goals 2.0. Expected Goals 2014; Individual Expected Goals 2014; Goalkeeper Ratings 2014; Expected Goals 2013; Individual Expected Goals 2013; Goalkeeper Ratings 2013; Win Expectancy; Expected Goals 1.0. Goalkeeper Ratings 2013; Raw Data 2013; xGD 1.0 Calculator; MLS Tables. MLS Tables 2014. Playoff/Shield Push 2014; MLS Tables 2013 ...